Florida State opened as a +2.5 betting favorite on the road against the Clemson Tigers earlier this week. The Noles are fresh off a blowout win over Wake Forest, and Clemson lost a heartbreaker on a two-point conversion against Duke at home last week.
The sideline videos from the Clemson game showed some defensive players looking uninterested as Dabo Swinney went on a tirade. The defense is why Clemson lost that game; ironically, the same can be said for a couple of FSU games this year.
It’s a hard game to handicap because of so many soft factors that normally wouldn’t matter. Will Clemson quit on Dabo at the first sign of adversity? Will FSU show up on the road after finally getting its first ACC win in over a year? One thing favoring FSU is that it is the healthiest they have been since earlier in the season.
Most bettors probably are not aware of that fact. Also, FSU is something like 2-9 in its last two trips to Death Valley. However, those types of stats don’t hold weight with me because the players who played in those games will not be on the field Saturday night.
The updated betting line is FSU +1.5 on Fanduel, despite a higher percentage of the money (64 percent) and bets (69 percent) being placed on Clemson.
All of the advanced metrics favor FSU. According to FEI, FSU has the better offense, and only six spots separate the defenses. FSU special teams rank No. 34, and Clemson ranks No. 114.
Which team is going to execute or make the fewest mistakes? That's what it'll come down to, and people betting the largest amounts seem to be willing to gamble on FSU. That's a risky proposition, but we are talking about gambling!