Florida State began the 2025 season with a bang, upsetting Alabama at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. However, Mike Norvell was unable to parlay that win into a bounce-back year, going 5-7 and missing a bowl game for the second-straight time.
Now, heading into 2026, Norvell is on a scorching hot seat with a pricey buyout looming as the only reason he’s still the head man for the Seminoles, and the prognosticators in Vegas aren’t expected to see FSU jump back to the top of the ACC pecking order. On Monday, the Seminoles opened as 2.5-point underdogs in the FanDuel Sportsbook for their Week 1 conference opener vs. SMU at home on Monday, September 7.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
FSU’s odds for its Week 0 matchup against New Mexico State have yet to be posted. After a bye in Week 2, Florida State heads to Tuscaloosa for its rematch with Alabama in Week 3.
FSU opens as a home underdog to SMU in Week 1 ACC opener
Florida State is not an ACC contender. Hardly anyone in the fanbase would delude themselves into thinking that they are. Still, seeing FSU as a home underdog to SMU, an ACC newcomer, when FSU is a few years removed from suing the league over its media rights contract, is a harsh reminder of how far the program has fallen in the NIL era.
SMU made the College Football Playoff in its first year in the ACC after narrowly falling to Clemson in the 2024 conference title game. The private school in Dallas has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the NIL era, activating its wealthy donor base to elevate its standing in college football. Still, even with Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, the Mustangs aren't expected to be a CFP contender again in 2026. They are expected, though, to come into Tallahassee and beat the Noles.
Meanwhile, FSU has botched the NIL era about as badly as any major program in the country and is still feeling the ill effects. It will take a few years for FSU to course-correct, a process that has already begun but may require a regime change to enact fully. These odds reflect that disparity, as do the ACC Title odds.
ACC title odds reveal FSU’s tough path through conference play
Not only is FSU a Week 1 underdog to the Mustangs, but the Seminoles are also currently tied with Cal for the 10th-best odds to win the ACC Championship at 40-1. Only Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Syracuse, Stanford, and Boston College have worse odds.
That’s bad enough on its own, but the bigger trouble, and a reason for the Noles being such a long shot, is that they play the top seven teams on the ACC odds board this year: Miami, Louisville, SMU, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and NC State. The only ACC opponent on the Noles' schedule with worse odds to win the league is Boston College, and that trip to Chestnut Hill the first weekend of November won’t be easy.
It could be another long year for the Seminoles, and Norvell’s last at the helm. The Week 1 SMU matchup certainly won’t be the last time the Noles are underdogs in 2026.
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