Florida State basketball (15-14, 8-8 ACC) has completely turned its season around after starting conference play 0-5. The Noles have gone 7-3 over their last 10 and 4-1 over their last five games. There have been advanced stat graphics highlighting the best teams with a shot to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
The Noles won’t make that tournament unless they win the ACC Tournament outright, but I've been wondering how FSU would stack up among the teams who'll make the NCAA Tournament. The last two games they lost were against teams who'll make the NCAA Tournament, and both games were winnable in the second half.
A graph highlighting some advanced metrics has FSU among elite company over the last five games.
The Very Important Graph™️ - Last 5 games only
— Nick Bateman (CBB guru) (@nickbateman33) March 3, 2026
Duke is so in form right now they genuinely might be unbeatable
This doesn't even include tonight and they're up 64-37 in a Q1 road game 😭 pic.twitter.com/CrHnIuBFnx
It has been fun to watch this FSU basketball team over the second half of the season
FSU is in the same quandrant and Virginia and Miami, the last two teams they lost against. Duke is in another stratosphere right now, but FSU is in the their quandrant. That should speak volumes about how well FSU basketball has been playing lately. I'd imagine these stats would look even better if this went back to cover their last 10 games.
It's a testament to the adjustments the coaching staff has made from early in the season. It's also a credit to the players for continuing to buy-in and make those adjustments when the season could have gone in the tank after starting ACC play the way they did. The odds of making the NCAA Tournament are not great, but the odds of making the Sweet 16 of the NIT are over 60 percent.
FSU will close out its regular season on the road against Pitt and hosting SMU. They will secure the No. 8 seed in the ACC Tournament with two wins. Who knows, anything can happen and it's why we play the games. However, having a competitive basketball team in year one with Luke Loucks is a great sign of things to come!