The Florida State football season might be fully underway, but the basketball season is just around the corner. The Seminoles' 2026-27 ACC schedule was officially released, and the team is now that much closer to tipping off the year.
After a disappointing 1-1 start that was not quite ugly enough to remove coach Mike Norvell, Florida State football is in a holding pattern with potentially ugly losses to Alabama and Miami looming. Many fans are ready for the season to end before truly getting started, and the conference schedule release offers a great time to focus on four overreactions to the upcoming ACC basketball slate.
Overreaction #1: Florida State could upset Duke in Durham
Florida State basketball might be preparing for the season, but coach Luke Loucks has not stopped on the recruiting trail all offseason. Loucks aims to add plenty of new and exciting talent to the team in Tallahassee, and improved results against conference competition could be evident this upcoming season.
Overreactions need to have a bit of bite to them, and one of the biggest for Florida State involves the team taking a bite out of the Duke Blue Devils. Florida State is in the middle of a six-game losing streak against Duke, but came within a point of pulling off the upset last season. Now, a much different stage will be set for the 2026-27 meeting.
The Seminoles are certainly expected to have an improved team, which should keep the game relatively close. However, the timing of the game is important as Duke will play North Carolina before Florida State, and Gonzaga shortly after. The Seminoles could catch the Blue Devils at the perfect time, but if not, the combination of Marcis Ponder and Kam Taylor could propel the team forward.
Overreaction #2: A 4-0 start to conference play is pretty realistic
An 18-15 record overall and a 10-8 mark in conference play is not exactly the most promising season, but Florida State did plenty of things right on the court during the 2025-26 season. The Seminoles lost four games against ranked opponents by a total of ten points, and the team only lost five games by a margin greater than ten.
The potential on the court was certainly there last season for the team under Loucks, and now Florida State is expected to take another step forward. The best way for the team to do that is by kicking off conference play with multiple statement wins, and a potential four-game winning streak should not be written off.
Florida State plays Syracuse, California, Stanford, and North Carolina to open ACC play. The Orange delivered one of the toughest losses to the Seminoles last season, and a convincing win in the first conference game would serve as excellent revenge. California and Stanford are a combined 1-2 against Florida State in the last two seasons, and neither team should pose a serious threat this season.
Beating North Carolina is going to be the hardest part of the four-game stretch, which is why it is likely the final leg of the winning streak. The Tar Heels are expected to put together one of the top teams in the ACC this upcoming season, and Florida State has lost the last seven matchups in a row.
Florida State could produce a statement win over North Carolina to cap off the winning streak, and then the streak may likely come to an end against the likes of Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, or Clemson.
Overreaction #3: February is the most important month on the schedule
While the argument can be made that February is typically an important month for teams, the Seminoles have a particularly difficult path this season that could pose a threat. Florida State starts the month on the road against NC State and Miami, before returning home to face Clemson. The return home is just a brief stop before facing the most difficult part of the gauntlet.
The Seminoles face Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Virginia to close out the month, before facing Boston College and Miami to close out the regular season. Florida State will face arguably all five of the top teams in the ACC in February, and if things go south, the Seminoles could be in trouble.
The 2025-26 season was a rocky one at times for Florida State, but Loucks managed to get the team to play excellent basketball at the end of last year. The Seminoles lost just two games in February last season in what was the best stretch of basketball the team played.
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