Week 5 is nearly here for Florida State, with a clash against ACC rival Virginia inside Doak Campbell Stadium looming. Last season, Florida State lost in double overtime and then subsequently lost the next three games in a row. A four-game losing streak exposed Florida State in a way that the team could not cover from, and falling into the same trap this season would almost certainly result in a staff change.
The Seminoles have gotten off to a difficult start to the 2026 season, with uninspiring wins over New Mexico State and Central Arkansas, and losses to Alabama and SMU. The losses were both ugly games for Florida State, but the team still had chances to pull ahead each time.
Virginia is currently a 2.5-point favorite to win in Tallahassee, which is not a good look for the Seminoles. However, the game is expected to be a close one, and Florida State could finally record the convincing win that has been missing this season.
With an important game looming for Florida State, here are three bold predictions that we think could realistically happen in the Week 5 game.
1. Jayvan Boggs records another 30+ yard touchdown
Florida State needed another receiver to step up to give quarterback Ashton Daniels another weapon, and Jayvan Boggs did just that against Central Arkansas. A 100-yard game against an FCS school may not be the craziest stat line, but Boggs did an excellent job adapting to the coverage and making himself useful.
The Seminoles need more of that to take some of the pressure off of Daniels and the offensive line, and Boggs has a perfect opportunity to do so against Virginia. The Cavaliers' defense has been pretty stout against the pass, but limiting big gains is where the team has struggled at times. Florida State is going to try to get the running backs going first and foremost, which could open up a big-time opportunity for Boggs once again.
During West Virginia's win over the Cavaliers, the Mountaineers recorded three touchdowns from 15 or more yards away. West Virginia completed five 20+ yard passes in between solid gains on the ground. Boggs has the speed and IQ in the open field to become the next player to do so, and a 30-yard score for the receiver is certainly possible.
2. Ashton Daniels runs for over 100 yards
If there is one thing that truly stood out from the Cavaliers' loss to West Virginia, it would be the success that quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. found running the ball. Hawkins recorded three touchdowns and 123 rushing yards as Virginia struggled to decipher the option and draw plays the Mountaineers threw at them.
Virginia might be great at running the football on offense, but the defense has struggled at times this season with stopping the run. Getting Ousmane Kromah going on the ground is a necessity, but giving quarterback Ashton Daniels chances to run could decide how far Florida State can go against Virginia.
Given the emphasis Florida State is going to put on running the football with Daniels, and the problems Virginia has had with defending quarterback runs, a 100-yard game on the ground could be in line. Daniels has done so twice in his career against the likes of Alabama and NC State.
3. The defense allows Beau Pribula to hit a new career-high through the air
The focus of the defense ahead of the Week 5 clash has been solely on finding a way to stop Virginia from running the football. The Cavaliers do the most damage on offense with the multi-layered rushing attack from Beau Pribula, Jekail Middlebrook, Xavier Brown, and Xay Davis. Everyone has a role, and having that many options makes eliminating the run a very difficult task.
Florida State could be in trouble on the ground against a dynamic offense like Virginia, but the success of the run game is only half of the danger of the offense. Pribula was not the greatest passer last season with Missouri, tossing nine interceptions and 11 touchdowns, but the quarterback was able to match his passing touchdown total from last season in four games thanks to the success of the play-action offense.
The Cavaliers make teams pay with play-action passes, and with so much success on the ground, Pribula has been able to complete 76.7% of his pass attempts this season. Pribula is not the type of quarterback who consistently hurts opposing teams downfield, but with the running backs potentially finding success against Florida State, a new career-high in passing yards is possible.
Defending against the pass has not been easy for Florida State this season, with opposing teams picking up 290 passing yards per game. Pribula's previous career-high was 334 passing yards against Kansas in 2025, and the Jayhawks only allowed 214.1 passing yards per game last season.
Interestingly enough, Pribula leaning upon his arm and his receivers, even if successful, is the best path to victory for Florida State. The Seminoles' defense suffers breakdowns after being overexposed, and limiting long drives is an easy way to ensure the defense does not get tired.
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