No. 4 FSU football will travel to Charlotte Saturday night to take on the No. 14 Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship game. It’s a game that got more interesting with the injury to FSU starting quarterback Jordan Travis.
The Noles would have been a heavy favorite to win with him under center, but the Noles have had to turn to redshirt junior Tate Rodemaker.
Rodemaker made his first start away from Doak Campbell Stadium last week in the Swamp and helped lead the Noles in a come-from-behind 24-15 victory over the Gators to secure a 12-0 undefeated season.
FSU football enters the game as a -2.5 betting favorite, with an excellent defense and some offensive uncertainty.
Was the offensive performance against a mediocre Florida defense an anomaly, or foreshadowing of what to expect? FSU’s offense had lost some of the consistency and explosiveness before the injury to Jordan Travis.
However, Tate Rodemaker wasn’t the only reason the offense sputtered in the first half against Florida. Frankly, it was more of other guys not doing their jobs that put the offense in some tough spots.
Ironically, the best we’ve ever seen Tate Rodemaker play came at the expense of the Louisville Cardinals last year.
Ultimately, I think FSU wins the game if the offense plays well. Here are five keys to defeating the Louisville Cardinals.
Get Off The Field On Third Downs
I expect Louisville to take a page from the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes. They run the ball 57 percent of their plays and like to stay in third and manageable situations.
It also shortens the game and helps to keep the FSU offense off the field. That facet was an important factor in the Gators building a 12-0 lead early in the first half last week.
The FSU defense failed to get off the field on a couple of third and long situations, and that kept the clock rolling, which only allowed the FSU offense to run three plays in the first quarter.
That drive was killed by a poor decision by Trey Benson after missing a cutback lane.
FSU made some adjustments and limited the Gator’s running game, especially in the second half. Florida only scored three points in the second half and four consecutive three and outs to end the game.
Louisville converts third downs 39 percent, and FSU allows third down conversions 30 percent of the time against Power 5 competition.
Avoid Turnovers
One of the biggest tasks for the FSU offense against the Florida Gators was to avoid turnovers.
FSU got stuck with poor field position for most of the first half, and a turnover would have assuredly resulted in points for the Gators.
Florida had not generated many turnovers on the season, but that’s not the case with the Louisville Cardinals.
They’ve generated 19 turnovers (seven fumbles recovered and 12 interceptions). One of the best things about the FSU offense is they rarely turned the ball over with Jordan Travis at quarterback.
The two interceptions he threw this season were off deflections, and he rarely fumbled the ball. Tate Rodemaker hasn’t turned the ball over in limited duty, but it involved running backs, receivers, and special teams.
FSU has to avoid giving possessions away against a team that wants to be methodical on offense and limit possessions.
Limit Missed Tackles
Aside from looking to establish the running game, the Cardinals like to get the ball to their playmakers in space.
Not only will it be imperative to make tackles when Louisville runs the ball. However, they will throw a lot of motions and eye candy at FSU looking to cause confusion for their linebackers and secondary.
In these instances, it’ll likely result in one-on-one situations similar to what FSU faced against the Florida Gators last week. FSU safety Akeem Dent played arguably his best game in the garnet and gold last week and won every one-on-one situation in the open field.
Had Dent not made those tackles, Florida likely would have had more offensive success on the scoreboard than they did.
The FSU defense will need to limit these types of plays to 7-10 yards instead of 20+ yard gains. Louisville likes to take advantage of overly aggressive and undisciplined defenses.
Luckily, FSU usually plays sound football defensively. However, when the Louisville offense is humming, it’s usually because teams don’t tackle well.
Avoiding Third and Long
This aspect is so important for the FSU offense. Unfortunately, it’s an area they’ve not been great in, even with Jordan Travis at quarterback.
It’s an area they struggled with last week, but Tate Rodemaker made a number of big-time throws to convert third down against the Florida Gators.
However, Florida’s defense isn’t as good as Louisville’s, so third and long isn’t a situation they want to consistently find themselves. Louisville’s defense allows third-down conversions 29.6 percent of the time.
That’s outstanding and nearly as good as FSU’s, granted they haven’t faced an offense with the caliber of players at the skill positions.
FSU will likely struggle to run the ball at times, but Louisville will allow explosive runs at times. I think we’ll see more first-down passing with Tate Rodemaker. Louisville’s secondary and linebackers are where they are most vulnerable.
I’d like to see some passes to the running backs out of the backfield as an extension of the running game. I think someone like Ja’Khi Douglas and Lawrance Toafili can have a field day against their linebackers.
Whatever it takes to stay in third and manageable.
Stopping The Run
Whatever it takes to stop/limit Louisville’s run game is the most important aspect of winning this game. Louisville will run outside zone, RPO, and read option with the QB, combined with all of the motion eye candy.
Jeff Brohm is an excellent offensive mind and knows he’ll have to scheme up some stuff against this FSU defense.
The defensive line will need to play like they did in the second half against Florida last week. Louisville’s offensive line isn’t terrible, allowing 56 tackles for a loss and 22 sacks.
Some of the latter are because Louisville will look to get the ball out of Jack Plummer’s hands quickly, which limits the time to get to the quarterback. The other part is they run the ball 57 percent of the time.
Most teams average about 1-2 sacks and 4-5 tackles for a loss against the Cardinals. If FSU can limit the run game, I like how their secondary matches up with the Louisville skill players. The Noles have been stingy through the air all season, and Jack Plummer isn’t a special QB.