No. 5 FSU football will travel to face the Florida Gators on Saturday night. It’s a rivalry game with a lot on the line for both teams, but for the first time I can recall, both teams will start backup quarterbacks because the starters got injured in the previous week.
That dynamic has thrown a level of uncertainty into a contest that heavily favors the Noles. They win nearly every statistical category that matters on offense and defense.
Which backup will play the best, or which coaching staff will best position that player to have success? FSU backup Tate Rodemaker has played in way more games than Florida backup Max Brown.
He’s been in the FSU offensive system for four years, while Brown is in his second year as a redshirt freshman. FSU has the better defense by far, yet some FSU fans still wonder how this game will unfold.
FSU has faced several quarterbacks that fit the mold of Brown and has not allowed more than 24 points in a game all year. Florida routinely allows 30 points lately.
While FSU has the edge and should win the game, some intangibles may come into play. Here are three things I want to see from the Noles Saturday night.
Play Smart Situational Football
Mike Norvell has molded this football team into a group that plays with great consistency on both sides. Rivalry games can take a life of their own with different things causing momentum swings.
A strip-sack fumble recovery, interception, long third down conversion, or penalty on third down that results in an automatic first down.
FSU usually plays smart, but I need them to play with the highest level of attention to detail possible on Saturday night.
What do I mean by that? I mean not committing penalties like late hits out of bounds or on the quarterback. I mean not returning kickoffs out of the end zone, giving the offense poor field position to start drives because Florida covers kickoffs excellently.
I mean running pass routes to the sticks or beyond and not two yards short on third down. For Tate Rodemaker, I mean not forcing things on third down and not being afraid to use his legs to gain 3 to 4 yards instead of sitting in the pocket looking downfield for a big play.
Defensively, it’s understanding they only need to play their assignements, and they’ll be fine.
Patience Offensively
I don’t expect Florida to have a ton of success offensively, but if they do, I don’t want Tate Rodemaker to feel like he’s got to hit an eight-run home run. I hope to see FSU showing patience on offense. If the big play is there, go for it.
However, I don’t want to see them forcing things. I’m fine playing the field position game and punting instead of forcing things and turning the ball over, especially early in the game.
I know FSU hasn’t had a ton of success traditionally running the ball, but I know they’ll need to keep the Gators honest. While I suspect Florida will bring pressure, I think they’ll be vulnerable to explosive plays.
If the running game isn’t doing much early, don’t completely abandon it. Note, I’m not saying run it into a stacked box on back-to-back downs like we’ve seen Mike Norvell do the past couple of weeks for no reason at all.
I hope we see Tate Rodemaker willing to take the checkdowns. While I know a touchdown is optimal, I hope Mike Norvell makes smart decisions in the red zone.
Fast Start Defensively
If you’re a frequent reader of the site, you know I’ve been bullish on this FSU football defense more than most. I’m surprised by the number of folks who expect the Florida offense to score a lot of points.
We’ve seen Adam Fuller begin games conservatively against Clemson. Other times, we’ve seen him begin games aggressively against Syracuse. Which version will be get Saturday night? My hope is we’ll get the aggressive version against the run.
The game approach the Noles took in the second half against Miami would be my preference. FSU dominated the Hurricanes in the half, and I think they could do the same against the Gators. I hope to see FSU commit to stopping the run and forcing Max Brown to throw the ball to beat them.
The guy has only thrown 12 passes all season, and FSU has arguably the best pass defense nationally. I don’t want to see him have time in the pocket to make plays or to scramble for first downs with his legs.
If FSU can stop Florida’s running game early, I don’t see them finding much success to score many points.
Parting Thoughts
FSU football enters the game as -6.5 betting favorites with an over/under points total of 49.5. Those odds imply a 28-21 win for the Noles.
The odds also take into account that it’ll take place in the Swamp. If this game were at Doak Campbell, the spread would be more like -9.5.
That’s where these factors I’ve described come into play. If FSU can play a clean game, avoid turnovers, avoid penalties in critical situations. If they can score touchdowns in the red zone instead of field goals(unlike Missouri last week).
I think they should win this game handily. As mentioned, the Noles have the edge in every major category on paper. It’s the unknown of how the quarterbacks will play that will likely determine much of this game.
I like FSU’s defense matching up with Florida’s offense way more than how Florida’s defense matches up against Tate Rodemaker. Which one will execute the best?
I’m going to go with the guy with more experience in the system and playmakers all around him.