No. 8 FSU football can turn heads with a victory over the No. 5 ranked LSU Tigers Sunday night. It’s a game that will help confirm the Noles belong among the elite program.
Despite both team’s top-10 ranking, over 75 percent of the bets have been on the LSU Tigers to cover the -2.5 betting spread. It was a similar betting spread in last season’s game, with the Noles winning outright.
FSU head coach Mike Norvell enters year four with a complete roster overhaul and player development. LSU head coach Brian Kelly enters his second year at LSU, winning the SEC West and making the SEC Championship game.
Mike Norvell has faced off against Kelly for the last three years, going 1-2, but seemed to close the gap each year as he acquired better talent in Tallahassee. Does Mike Norvell have an advantage now that the talent gap is no longer there is minimal?
FSU has fewer question marks going into this game compared to last year. LSU returns a lot of talent, and it’ll come down to which team can make fewer mistakes and capitalizes on their opportunities. Here are five keys to FSU football beating LSU.
Establish Run Game
FSU football wants to run the football to set up it’s vertical passing game. The Noles didn’t have a ton of success in the traditional running game last season and relied on Jordan Travis completing several third and medium passes to move the sticks.
I’m not sure that’s a recipe that’s sustainable each game. I’d much rather have FSU running backs finding success early and setting up third and manageable downs.
FSU establishing the run will also force LSU to bring a safety down in the box, which will create more one-on-one matchups against their suspect secondary. I’ll take my chances with Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, and Jaheim Bell in those situations.
FSU has an improved offensive line, and Trey Benson will more familiarity in the offense. FSU will likely miss Treshaun Ward somewhat, but Lawrance Toafili has a ton of experience, and Rodney Hill has a lot of talent.
If FSU can establish the run game, it’s something that could wear down LSU’s front as the game progresses, opening up more opportunities for the offense to do damage.
Defense Getting Off The Field On Third Down
This area is where the FSU defense has to do a better job in 2023 against LSU. The Tigers converted 5 of 11 third down opportunities last year, with the defense only forcing two punts.
However, part of this was LSU fumbling two punt returns, which negated two offensive possessions they would have had.
LSU did a solid job of staying out of third and long situations last year.
They converted on several third and shorts and couple of third and medium downs. We’ll talk about this later, but Jayden Daniels had too much success scrambling on early downs, which allowed several third and managable situations.
If FSU can limit LSU’s run game and force Jayden Daniels to beat them with his arm? I think their chances to win the game go up tremendously.
Win Early Downs on BOTH sides
What I mean by winning early downs on both sides is to prevent predictable passing situations on offense and create predictable passing situations on defense.
I think they will find success on the ground against LSU, but the Noles will need to prevent getting behind the chains early, and we could see them throwing on first down to keep the LSU defense honest against the run. They did it a lot last year by rolling Jordan Travis out of the pocket.
FSU could use Jordan Travis in the run game as well. That aspect can also help the Noles stay ahead of the chains, slow down the pass rush, and create opportunities in the passing game.
LSU struggled in the traditional run game last year, but they’ll have to account for Daniels scrambling, especially on third downs.
That’s when FSU must get off the field on third downs.
We’ve seen Brian Kelly show aggressiveness on fourth downs in the past, so they’ll likely need to be prepared for four down territory if LSU reaches certain parts of the field.
Capitalize In Scoring Situations
FSU left so many scoring opportunities on the field against LSU last year it wasn’t even funny. They should have scored 40+ points. They missed a field goal early and had a turnover on downs on the LSU eight-yard line.
FSU running back Treshaun Ward literally fumbled as he was about to cross the goal line for a touchdown also. That’s potentially 17 points left, which would have given them 41 points in the game.
However, FSU addresses nearly all of their offensive shortcomings in the offseason. They upgraded on the offensive line, wide receiver, and tight-end positions. They have incredible size to take advantage of one-on-one matchups in the red zone.
The offensive line is bigger, better, and with more overall depth. They should be able to move the line of scrimmage better in short-yardage situations.
If FSU can capitalize on their scoring opportunities, I think they could score over 40 points in this game relatively easily.
Contain Jayden Daniels
I did an entire article and video on the Built For Playmakers Youtube Channel here. I believe the LSU offense starts and stops with Jayden Daniels. I think the key to limiting Daniels is forcing him to stay in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm.
Think of the way Clemson defended Jordan Travis in 2021. The only difference is LSU has way better receivers on their team this year than Jordan Travis had in 2021. Nevertheless, I think FSU’s defensive front, and get pressure up the middle to collapse the pocket.
As long as the FSU defensive ends don’t run themselves out of the play and open up huge lanes to run, I think FSU’s secondary can hold up.
They played well last year against a talented bunch from LSU. However, FSU can’t allow Jayden Daniels to scramble like he did last year, and they can’t allow him to have all day to find receivers. I don’t think the latter will happen with FSU’s defensive front.
If they can win on early downs and put LSU in predictable passing situations, forcing Daniels to beat them with is arm is the way to go.