FSU football: Does Mike Norvell have Brian Kelly’s number?

FSU football head coach Mike Norvell will face LSU head coach Brian Kelly for the third consecutive year. The two met in 2020 in Mike Norvell’s first year at FSU during the COVID season, with the Noles as +21.5 betting underdogs.

It was Brian Kelly’s 11th season at Notre Dame. For context, FSU didn’t have an offseason to implement any offense, or defense, or spend time in a real strength and conditioning program.

The coaches got to spend very little face-to-face time with players they barely knew before the season started.

So, Mike Norvell took an already depleted team with a bad culture on the road to face a Notre Dame team that went on to win the ACC that year. The Noles covered the spread, only losing by 16 points.

Fast forward to the 2021 season opener, where FSU welcomed a top 10 ranked Notre Dame to Doak Campbell Stadium. Notre Dame was a -7 point betting favorite, a huge difference from the prior season.

FSU turned the ball over three times, resulting in 21 points for the Fighting Irish, which had to go to OT to outlast the Noles 41-38. The Noles covered the spread once again.

Fast forward to the 2022 season opener, where FSU traveled to the Superdome in Louisiana to face Brian Kelly in his first year at LSU. LSU was a -3.5 betting favorite, again a smaller number than the previous year.

For context, it was year one for Brian Kelly in a new program, but he took over one of the most talented programs nationally. The game was not as close as the final score, with FSU winning outright 24-23.

So, a correlation that could prove true Sunday night? The smaller the talent gap between Mike Norvell and Brian Kelly’s teams, the more of an edge you have to give Mike Norvell. I could see if these were one-off games every 3-4 years, but the last three years have been under similar circumstances(early in the season or the first game).

Brian Kelly is either underachieving with more talent, or Mike Norvell knows how to maximize the talent he has. I think we can point to Brian Kelly’s track record as more of the former based on how his teams have gotten thrashed in the College Football Playoffs against top competition more often than not.

LSU and FSU are likely equal in talent, or closer than any of the previous three meetings by far. If Mike Norvell wins this game outright, I think we have proof he has Brian Kelly’s number.