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FSU football: Noles finish with highest advanced metric ranking since 2016

By Kelvin Hunt

Nov 5, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell reacts from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell reacts from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /
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I knew FSU football was better than the advanced metric projections I saw in the preseason. The Noles returned a lot of experience on offense and defense, plus upgraded the talent on both sides of the ball via the transfer portal.

The success of their season largely depended on the health of Jordan Travis and the offensive line. Luckily, the injury bug avoided that side of the ball but did hit the defense, which hurt them in some key games. Let’s take a look at where preseason projections were, and where FSU football finished via FEI metrics:

Preseason

Overall-No. 47
Offense-No. 58
Defense-No. 40

My projected win total was 7.63 for the Noles in the preseason, with me projecting an 8-4 season. Here’s where the Noles finished after their bowl win against Oklahoma:

Final

Overall-No. 11
Offense-No. 7
Defense-No. 36
Special Teams-No. 42

I don’t put too much stock into the preseason projections because folks have no valid way to account for or to know which players are leaving or coming. They don’t know how a coach plans to integrate a player into their schemes and how effective it’ll be. However, someone like me who only has to focus on one team has more accurate information and how things can be affected by roster moves, etc.

These rankings are the highest since the 2016 season, which is the last time FSU won 10 games.

Overall-No. 12
Offense-No. 12
Defense-No. 12
Special Teams-No. 102

The raw number comparisons are interesting too:

2016
-35.1 ppg
-6.45 ypp
-5.07 ypc
-43.79 percent 3rd down conversions
-157.57 passer rating
-20 turnovers

2022
-36.1 ppg
-6.96 ypp
-5.47 ypc
-51.19 percent 3rd down conversions
-140.68 passer rating
-14 turnovers

The 2016 team likely is the more talented team, but I think I’d take the 2022 team to beat them if both teams have everyone healthy. I know 2016 had Dalvin Cook and a stacked defense, but Jordan Travis’s play this year was a massive upgrade over what Deondre Francois brought that year. We also saw that the 2016 defense gets torched worse than this 2022 defense. Who do you like in that matchup?

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