FSU football fans have a love-and-hate relationship with recruiting under Mike Norvell. Mike Norvell is one of the best at transfer portal recruiting, but fans believe high school recruiting should be much better.
I don’t get all caught up in recruiting rankings, because the rankings get manipulated by the sheer volume of commits a program accepts. That’s one of the main reasons FSU hasn’t had a top 10-15 recruiting class over the past two years.
They took 16 high schoolers in 2021 and 17 in 2022. The Noles finished with the No. 20 national ranking with an average player ranking of 89.54 in 2022.
A prime example is Clemson finished No. 10 with an average player ranking of 89.83. They took four more players than FSU, which was the difference in the two team rankings, although the per-player average is nearly identical.
The other difference is FSU took players from the transfer portal. I guarantee most of those players got on the field before the freshmen Clemson signed.
It’s one major reason FSU has closed the gap between the two schools. Mike Norvell’s approach is more strategy than not recruiting high school players well. Let’s revisit the last two recruiting classes.
2021 Recruiting Class
The Noles took 16 high schoolers and 10 transfers that were on scholarship:
- Hunter Washington: 4-star DB (non-contributor transfer)
- Malik McClain: 4-star WR (starter)
- Shambre Jackson: 4-star DL (non-contributor transfer)
- Omarion Cooper: 4-star DB (starter)
- Patrick Payton: 4-star DE (All-ACC Freshmen of the Year)
- Rod Orr: 4-star OL (non-contributor transfer)
- George Wilson: 4-star DE (non-contributor transfer)
- Byron Turner Jr.: 3-star DE (non-contributor, injuries)
- Joshua Burrell: 3-star WR (non-contributor, injuries)
- Bryson Estes: 3-star OL (Developing, should contribute)
- Kevin Knowles: 3-star DB (starter)
- Jackson West: 3-star TE (non-contributor, injuries)
- Joshua Farmer: 3-star DL (contributor, starter in 2023)
- Jordan Eubanks: 3-star LB (non-contributor transfer)
- Shyheim Brown: 3-star DB (contributor, starter in 2023)
- Koby Gross: 3-star TE (non-contributor transfer)
Three of the seven blue-chip players in the class became starters. Six of these have already transferred and were not contributors, with another 2-3 that are candidates to transfer. Three of the 3-stars play starter minutes or will start in 2023. That explains the low hit rate with blue-chip players and why a team shouldn’t take a ton of three-stars just to help booster a ranking with volume.
Transfers
- Marcus Cushnie: 3-star DE(non-contributor transfer)
- Dillan Gibbons: 3-star OL (All-ACC player)
- Brandon Moore: 3-star DB (non-contributor transfer)
- Jammie Robinson: 3-star DB (All-ACC player)
- Keir Thomas: 3-star DE (All-ACC player)
- D.J. Williams: 3-star RB (non-contributor transfer)
- Andrew Parchment: 3-star WR (starter/contributor)
- Jarques McClellion: 3-star DB (depth contributor)
- McKenzie Milton: 4-star QB (starter/contributor)
- Jermaine Johnson: 4-star DE (All-ACC and ACC Defensive Player of the Year)
That’s four All-ACC players and three more that contributed meaningful minutes. A team will take a 70 percent hit rate any day.
Overall, this class has produced 13 players that played meaningful minutes, started, or made All-Conference. It takes most offensive time to develop, and Bryson Estes could make it 14 if he’s able to contribute in 2023. That’s 54 percent of the class. This class has likely outperformed its No. 21 overall ranking(high school and transfer).
The 2022 recruiting class took 17 high schoolers and 14 transfers that were on scholarship:
- Sam McCall: 4-star DB (non-contributor transfer)
- Azareye’h Thomas: 4-star DB (contributor)
- Julian Armella: 4-star OL (expected contributor/starter)
- AJ Duffy: 4-star QB (expected contributor/starter)
- Qae’Shon Sapp 4-star OL (expected contributor)
- Jaylen Early: 4-star OL (expected contributor)
- Daniel Lyons: 4-star DE (expected contributor)
- Aaron Hester.: 3-star DE (possible contributor)
- Bishop Thomas: 3-star WR (possible contributor)
- Rodney Hill: 3-star OL (expected contributor)
- Antavious Woody: 3-star DB (expected contributor)
- Daughtry Richardson: 3-star TE (expected contributor)
- Omar Graham Jr: 3-star DL (expected contributor)
- Ayobami Tifase: 3-star LB (expected contributor)
- Brian Courtney: 3-star DB (possible contributor)
- Kanaya Charlton: 3-star TE (possible contributor)
- Jerrele Powers: 3-star TE (possible contributor)
This recruiting class was heavy in the trenches and it takes a year or two before those players are ready to contribute. The good news is 11 of these players are expected to contribute and there’s still a few more that could become contributors with more development.
Unfortunately, the highest-ranked recruit has already transferred because he couldn’t make the two-deep. That’s another example of why transfer portal players can have more value than high schoolers.
Transfers
- Caziah Holmes: 4-star RB (expected contributor)
- Malik Feaster: 3-star DB (non-contributor transfer)
- Jazston Turnetine: 3-star OL (contributor/starter)
- D’Mitri Emmanuel: 3-star OL (All-ACC player)
- Trey Benson 4-star RB (All-ACC player)
- Winston Wright: 3-star WR (expected contributor)
- Jared Verse: 4-star DE (All-ACC player)
- Tatum Bethune: 3-star LB (All-ACC player)
- Deuce Spann: 3-star WR (possible contributor)
- Greedy Vance: 3-star DB (starter)
- Johnny Wilson: 3-star WR (All-ACC player)
- Mycah Pittman: 3-star WR (All-ACC player)
- Kayden Lyles: 3-star OL (medical DQ)
- Bless Harris: 3-star OL (missed season with injury)
This group has a tremendous hit rate from the transfer portal. If we remove Holmes(wasn’t eligible to play in 2022), Wright, Lyles, and Harris, that means FSU only missed on one player(Feaster), and that was because he didn’t join the team until after fall camp. That’s six All-Conference players and two starters. Right now it looks like 24 of 31 players (77 percent) will contribute or start at some point. It depends on how many high schoolers get on the field in 2023, but this class will likely outperform its No. 19 overall ranking.
Parting Thoughts
I agree FSU football must improve the quality of players they take from the high school ranks. It’s been improving steadily with each recruiting class.
The average per-player ranking for 2020 was 87.96. That ranking improved to 88.79 in 2021 and 89.54 in 2022. The 2023 class finished with an 89.95. It’s way too early to take the 2024 rankings seriously, but FSU already has seven commits with an average 90.67 per player ranking.
This time last year, FSU only had three commits in their 2023 recruiting class, and only one ranked as a blue chip. One remained a three-star and ultimately signed with Central Florida (Randy Pittman), and the other two signed with FSU as blue-chip players (Lamont Green Jr., and Vandrevius Jacobs).
FSU has five of its seven 2024 commits ranked as blue-chip players. It’s a great start, and FSU will recruit coming off their best season on the field since 2016. All the negative recruiting about Mike Norvell potentially getting fired and not having the chance to compete for conference championships is over.
FSU has produced 10 All-ACC players, an ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and an ACC Defensive Freshman of the Year. FSU has a competitive NIL package, unlike this time last year, so they are in a prime position to land a top-10 high school class with another strong season on the field.
The coaches have all of the high school players from 2023 signed and can move to concentrating on transfer portal players, and the 2024 recruiting class.
The 2024 class already has a great foundation at QB, RB, WR, safety, and the defensive line.
Just show patience FSU football fans, because it’s coming.