FSU football: Analyzing betting lines for Noles and Gators

FSU football will host the rival Florida Gators Friday night in primetime to bring a close to the 2022 regular season. The Noles have won four consecutive games since their second bye week.

The Gators are 2-2 in their last four games, including an upset loss on the road in their last outing against Vanderbilt. It was the first time Vanderbilt had beaten the Gators since 1988.

The Noles will have an opportunity to win the state championship of Florida with a win over the Gators. FSU already dispatched the Miami Hurricanes on the road a few weeks ago.

Ironically, FSU goes into the Florida game as a -9.5 betting favorite, which is the same line they had for the Hurricanes.

The difference is the Noles will be at Doak Campbell Stadium. Of course, the Noles destroyed the Hurricanes 45-3, but oddsmakers know the Gators are a better team than Miami.

If the game were on a neutral field, FSU would be near touchdown-betting favorites. They would have been near -12.5 favorites against Miami on a neutral field.

FSU is the more complete team when compared to the Gators. FSU has a much better defense, and FSU’s offense had much more balanced than the Gators.

The Noles have the edge on special teams. ESPN’s FPI metric suggests FSU has a 77 percent chance to win. The total over/under is 58 points, which implies a 34-24 win for the Noles. That’s a score that I could see coming to fruition based on the matchups.

FSU has gotten off to fast offensive starts in the past few weeks, and that will be the key to victory against a Florida defense that struggles to get stops.

FSU opening a two-possession lead would make Florida’s QB, Anthony Richardson, have to put the ball in the air, which isn’t his strong suit due to inconsistencies.

Stay tuned to Chop Chat this week as we give you the best game breakdowns and analysis.