FSU football: 3 keys to defeating Syracuse Orange

FSU football looks for its third consecutive victory this season as they travel north to face the Syracuse Orange Saturday night in another prime-time matchup.

The Orange are in a similar boat as the Noles were earlier this season, losing three straight games after starting the season and surprising some folks with some big wins.

There are a lot of commonalities, one of the biggest reasons they began to lose games as they started facing better competition, and injuries to key players have made them vulnerable in the last few matchups.

One difference is the Noles have gotten healthier after their second bye week and saw one of its best defensive players return to the starting lineup. Syracuse has lost several players for the season, and that’s likely why the Noles enter the game as near-touchdown betting favorites on the road.

I’ve always thought this was a game the Noles would win. A worse FSU team beat Syracuse last season, but Syracuse had some improvements, notably from their quarterback Garrett Shrader.

However, he’s missed the last couple of games with an injury Syracuse head coach Dino Babers refuses to provide details on.

Nevertheless, I think FSU football wins the game whether he plays or not, but we’ll treat this game as if he’s playing. Here are my three keys to victory.

Contain Garrett Shrader/Sean Tucker

The Syracuse offense, even when fully healthy, has centered around their Syracuse players. Quarterback Garrett Shrader, running back Sean Tucker, and receiver Oronde Gadsden.

The latter and Tucker are the two leading receivers, and Shrader and Tucker are the team’s two leading rushers. You can see where this is going.

Syracuse looks to hand the ball to Tucker or get the ball to him as a receiver in space, with vertical plays downfield to Gadsden. The other wrinkle is Schrader will pull the ball down and take off as a runner, which is something the FSU defense found out the hard way last year.

The difference this year is he has improved as a passer. He has more confidence and experience. FSU contained Tucker for the most part last year, and Syracuse had no threat of a passing game.

The biggest thing was Shrader running with the ball, but FSU has already faced two of the best mobile quarterbacks in the nation this year.

The return of Fabien Lovett should help with Tucker, and FSU defends passes to running backs fairly well. They’ve faced receivers as good, if not better than Gadsden already this year.

I know FSU fans don’t want to hear it, but keeping everything in front and forcing Syracuse to execute in the red zone is the way to go. They only score touchdowns 53 percent of the time against Power 5 competition in the red zone. If Shrader doesn’t play, their offense won’t be a problem to defend.

Convert Third Downs

Opposing offenses convert third downs 37 percent of the time against Syracuse. However, that number has increased as the injuries on their defense have mounted.

They like to rush three and drop eight in coverage with their 3-3-5 look, which has made them vulnerable to teams that can run the ball. Notre Dame converted 40 percent of its third downs (6 of 15).

Pittsburgh converted 43.75 percent of its third downs (7 of 16) last week. This aspect has improved drastically for the FSU football offense this season.

They convert third downs at a 50 percent clip, but the last three games have been even better.

They converted 53.85 percent against Clemson, 60 percent against Georgia Tech, and 54.55 percent against Miami last week.

They should have scored 35+ points against Clemson and easily scored 40+ against Georgia Tech and Miami.

If they convert third downs at this rate against Syracuse, that trend of 30+ points should continue. If they score 30+, that’s a win for the Noles.

Avoid Turnovers and Capitalize on Scoring Opportunities

Turnovers have been common in the three losses for the Noles this season. It’s something that keeps occurring in each game, but luckily the offense and defense have been able to absorb and overcome them.

FSU has two early fumbles against Georgia Tech and an interception against Miami last week. The Orange has had an opportunistic defense and has a +7 turnover margin this season. That’s good for No. 17 nationally.

If Shrader plays, their offense is better than what Georgia Tech and Miami trot out each week, and their defense is still probably better.

They are not a team you can continue to provide multiple opportunities to and expect to mow them down like FSU did Georgia Tech and Miami.

Plus, the game will be on the road, and it’s their last home game this season, which means their fans will likely show up even though they’ve lost three straight games.

Syracuse plays hard on both sides of the ball and won’t quit like Miami. In the lone game (Boston College), FSU didn’t turn the ball over this year.

The game was over in the first quarter. They have to avoid those and continue to score in the red zone like they have in the past two games. FSU has scored touchdowns 64 percent of their trips inside the red zone since the bye week.

The Orange defense has allowed touchdowns 60 percent of the time in the red zone over the last two weeks.