FSU football: Adjusted win shares of five games left

RALEIGH, NC - OCTOBER 08: Head coach Mike Norvell of the Florida State Seminoles speaks with Jordan Travis #13 during the first half of their game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on October 8, 2022 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - OCTOBER 08: Head coach Mike Norvell of the Florida State Seminoles speaks with Jordan Travis #13 during the first half of their game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on October 8, 2022 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

November 19th vs. Louisiana

Here’s what I said in my game-by-game predictions before the season:

"Louisiana finished the 2021 season 13-1 with the lone loss in their season opener against Texas. They didn’t play any quality teams and had several one-possession games where they were victorious. The Ragin Cajuns had the No. 43 offense and No. 50 defense, according to FEI advanced metrics. Head coach Billy Napier left for the job at Florida, and most of their team is no longer intact. FSU will be the more talented team and should be able to impose their will in front of the home crowd at Doak Campbell Stadium."

Louisiana is 4-3 on the season and haven’t played or beaten a Power 5 team. I had this game at .80 before the year and will bump this up to .85. If FSU loses this game at home, fire everyone.