FSU football vs. Louisville prediction: Soft factors not enough for Cardinals

The betting spread for FSU football and Louisville now has the Noles as -3 favorites in some spots. The line was around -1.5 earlier this week. The lines moving in favor of the Noles makes sense. The more I think about this game, there is nothing but soft factors for Louisville to lean on. By soft factors, I mean things that sound good in theory but don’t have any bearing on the present. Here are a few that come to mind:

• Scott Satterfield has had Adam Fuller’s number
• Louisville will be hyped for their first home game
• Malik Cunningham could have the game of his life

The first one screams loser blood to me. The last two years have no bearing on Friday’s game. Imagine telling Bobby Petrino that Charles Kelly has his number going into the 2016 game after getting smoked in 2015.

I liken it to telling one fighter he can only kick and not throw punches while the other can do both. This year would be the first time both fighters are doing both, and Adam Fuller would have the edge in almost every physical category.

Louisville and their fans should have excitement for their first home game. As they have that excitement and motivation, an FSU early lead can take the fans right out of the game. The crowd didn’t do Clemson a bit of good in 2013. I’m not saying this 2022 team is 2013, but good teams take care of business at home and on the road. If FSU is who we think they are, it doesn’t matter where the game gets played.

Malik Cunningham is a very good player and has played well against the Noles for the past two seasons. He could have the game of his life, but he could also continue to look like the guy we’ve seen in the first two games against arguably worse defenses. This defense isn’t the same one we saw in 2020 or the first few games in the 2021 season.

Parting Thoughts

FSU football is the more talented team across the board. Most of this team has played in hostile environments bigger than what Louisville will present Friday night (Clemson and Florida last year). As I’ve been saying all week, this game is more about FSU than Louisville.

If FSU players execute each play, they’ll win the game aside from beating themselves with multiple turnovers. I like the Noles to win this one 31-20.