FSU football can turn heads with a victory over the LSU Tigers Sunday night. Both teams enter the contest looking to return to national prominence but under different circumstances.
FSU head coach Mike Norvell enters year three after nearly a complete roster overhaul and player development. LSU head coach Brian Kelly enters his first year at LSU after a successful stint at Notre Dame.
Mike Norvell has faced off against Kelly for the last two years, going 0-2, but seemed to close the gap between a middling program and one considered top 15 or so nationally. The good news is Mike Norvell continues with that continuity, while Brian Kelly must start over.
However, he inherits a talented group of players, similar to Willie Taggart at FSU football after Jimbo Fisher left. Can the continuity and culture Norvell established over the past few years overcome the talent gap(that’s not as great as some think)?
There are too many unknowns to feel sure about who will win the game. If they played 10 times, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see it split down the middle.
However, it’ll come down to which team can make fewer mistakes and capitalizes on their opportunities. Here are five keys to FSU football beating LSU.
Win Hidden Yardage Game
Special teams are an area FSU struggled last year, and that unit likely cost them 1-2 wins in 2021. Kickoff return continued to look like a large question mark in the Duquesne game, but I feel more confident in the punt return game with Mycah Pittman.
He let some punts hit the ground, but they were mostly uncatchable, and I’d rather not take the risk of trying to field one in traffic. However, FSU needs production from this unit when the opportunities present themselves.
I don’t trust the kickoff return unit, and I’d rather the kick return team fair catch everything to guarantee a start from the 25-yard line.
The Noles can’t afford to consistently start drives on their 15-yard line against a defense like LSU. If they fair caught every kickoff and punt, they would have better field position overall than last week.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game, and giving LSU great field position because of one poor decision could be costly.
LSU’s special teams have a lot of question marks too. Maybe the Noles can take advantage of a mistake they make?
Prevent Explosive Plays
I expect the FSU defensive front to have a great deal of success stopping the traditional running game of LSU, who’ll play without their top running back John Emery.
The strength of this LSU offense will be getting the ball to their wide receivers, and quarterback Jayden Daniels creating offense from scrambling opportunities.
LSU’s wide receivers rank among the best in the nation, and the key to stopping them will be getting pressure on the quarterback while staying true to their rushing lanes.
They’ll likely throw the ball a lot, getting rid of it quickly to try and get it to their playmakers in space while looking to negate the FSU pass rush.
Explosive plays in the running game will likely come from Daniels if they happen. FSU must force LSU to execute down the field, and I’m not sure they can consistently do that in their first game in a new offense.
Win Early Downs on BOTH sides
What I mean by winning early downs on both sides is to prevent predictable passing situations on offense and create predictable passing situations on defense.
I think they will find success on the ground against LSU, as they allowed nearly four yards per rush last year.
However, the Noles will need to prevent getting behind the chains early, and we could see them throwing on first down to keep the LSU defense honest against the run.
I asked a question earlier regarding how much Jordan Travis will run the ball. That aspect can also help the Noles stay ahead of the chains, slow down the pass rush, and create opportunities in the passing game.
I mentioned my expectation for LSU to struggle in the traditional run game, which means LSU could find themselves in predictable passing situations.
That’s when it’s imperative for FSU to get off the field on third downs, or prevent LSU from gaining a large chuch of that yardage. We’ve seen Brian Kelly show aggressiveness on fourth downs in the past.
Don’t Settle for Field Goals
The expectation is the game will be low-scoring, which translates to FSU potentially not having many opportunities in the red zone.
If that is the case? FSU can’t settle for chip-shot field goals. I would go into this contest with the intent to play four-down ball once I got inside the LSU 40-yard line.
That means if it’s third and seven, call the game knowing you’re going to go for it on fourth and short if the first down isn’t made.
I don’t trust FSU kicker Ryan Fitzgerald past 40-yards. It would depend on the score and flow of the game, but the only time I’d settle for a field goal would be on fourth and long.
The Noles were among the best teams nationally inside the red zone, scoring touchdowns over 70 percent of the time.
LSU’s red zone defense was suspect in 2021, allowing touchdowns over 70 percent of the time.
FSU scoring touchdowns will put tremendous pressure on an LSU offense that’s not sure of their identity just yet. When seen Mike Norvell show aggression on fourth down in the past, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it against Sunday night.
Find Success Early
FSU football is a team that’s grown in confidence over the last nine games, including the Dusquense last week and the final eight games in 2021.
I think they have confidence going into the LSU game, and if they find success early, that will only continue to bolster it. I’m not sure what mentality LSU will bring into the game.
They finished the 2021 season 2-4 in their final six games. They have a lot of transfer players, a new coaching staff, and a team that may think they’ll beat FSU solely because they play in the SEC.
FSU is a team that believes they can beat LSU in their home state. A team that knows if they beat LSU, they set themselves up to turn a lot of heads nationally, and the effect on recruiting would be massive.
I believe this team learned how to deal and overcome adversity last year, which should bolster that confidence going into 2022.
If they can get off to a fast start, a touchdown on their opening drive, or a 10-0 or 14-0 lead? I think it’ll be off to the races for this team Sunday night.