The standard at FSU football is to win the conference and national titles, but the Noles haven’t been in the conversation to meeting either standard since the 2017 preseason.
The Noles entered that year No. 3 in the nation and went toe-to-toe against No. 1 Alabama in the season opener.
A questionable non-DPI call in the red zone in the first half and self-inflicted wounds turned the tide, and the Noles went on to lose.
Not only did they lose, an injury to Deondre Francois late in the fourth quarter meant a freshmen QB had to start the rest of the season. FSU football has been reeling ever since in a variety of ways.
The three-win season in 2020 was a new low, but sometimes hitting rock bottom allows you to ascend to the top quicker. In these instances, change has been good as the roster consists mostly of Mike Norvell guys on both sides of the ball.
As I’ve said before, FSU didn’t hit rock bottom overnight, and they won’t ascend to the top overnight. It’s a process, and we saw legitimate improvements on the field despite the win/loss record not improving as much as we’d like in 2021. They lost by a little and the next step is to win by a little before winning by a lot.
Here are the eight most winnable games for the Noles in 2022.
LSU
One of the biggest reasons is it will be the first game with entirely new coaching staff for the LSU Tigers. They still don’t know who their quarterback is, and questions remain on the offensive line and at tight end.
The latter is usually a big part of what Brian Kelly likes to do on offense. I think catching the Tigers early in the season likely favors FSU, who will have a great deal of continuity from last season.
It’s also the third consecutive year Mike Norvell will face off against Brian Kelly, so there’s some familiarity there too.
LSU’s defense has question marks, particularly in the secondary, with only two players returning with starting experience. However, they could have several guys from the transfer portal in starting roles.
We saw from experience that it takes some time for those transfers to get acclimated to things, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggle early in the season before finding some things that work as the season progresses.
LSU is a slight favorite in this neutral site game, and all of the variables are a great recipe for an upset if I’ve ever seen one.
Florida
The Florida game has similar circumstances to LSU, except the game will be the last one on the schedule, and FSU won’t have the element of surprise.
However, Florida lost a lot from last year’s team that barely made a bowl game and arguably should have lost against a lesser talented FSU team.
Florida lost 81 percent of the players who scored a touchdown for them in 2021. Florida has question marks at receiver, tight end, offensive line, and running back.
Defensively, Florida has question marks at the defensive end in its secondary. Who knows what the mindset of this Florida team will be by the end of the season.
They project to win about seven games, which is in the ballpark of where they were last year. I don’t think much of Billy Napier as a coach and it’s possible he might have lost his team by then.
I think FSU matches up well with Florida in the trenches and has made the necessary additions to overtake the Gators for the first time since the 2017 season.
Wake Forest
I think of that 2021 Wake Forest quite a bit. What a culmination of a cluster of you know what. FSU was still trying to play the two-quarterback system, the referees were garbage, and FSU did themselves no favors with six turnovers.
FSU was still trying to figure things out on defense as they were rotating several players in the secondary.
Wake Forest had an elite offense and will return a lot of that production, including QB Sam Hartman. However, that defense was and will be atrocious once again in 2022.
The game will be at home, and Wake Forest will have played a physical Clemson game the week before traveling to Tallahassee.
FSU has remedied most of its issues from last year and will be a more talented team offensively. I think the defense will be good enough to slow the Demon Deacons down, and FSU’s offense will be good enough to put up enough points to give the Noles their first win over Wake Forest since 2018.
Yes, it hurt to type that last sentence.
FSU football will host a Boston College team led by quarterback Phil Jurkovec and wide receiver Zay Flowers. That’s virtually all they have, along with a new offensive coordinator.
I wrote last year Boston College was one of the most overrated teams on the schedule, and that proved true. FSU should have won that game by three touchdowns, but the referees wanted to intervene and keep it close.
FSU’s defense made Jurkovec look pedestrian as he ran for his life, and they will feature an entirely new offensive line.
Defensively, they were well below average and will be the lesser talented football team traveling to Tallahassee.
They have been terrible against the run, and running the ball is always a strength of Mike Norvell’s teams. As bad as FSU has been over the past few years, Boston College is a team they’ve managed to beat for the most part.
I don’t see why that would change in 2022, barring some major injuries for the Noles. It’s a game early in the season, and they will be trying to figure things out offensively.
Louisiana
Louisiana has a new staff with the departure of Billy Napier to Florida and will have a new QB and only one returner along the offensive line.
The same will be true of the defensive side, with many players exiting the program via the transfer portal. They will still have a good bit of talent for a Sun-Belt team, but they will be the lesser talented team facing FSU football.
They will have questions at defensive end and likely will not be able to stop FSU’s run game. It’s a game the Noles should win in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
It’ll be a home game the week before the Noles host Florida and will be a key game for the Noles to prepare for the Gators.
Syracuse
The Syracuse Orange have been awful under Dino Babers outside of a flukish 2018 season that saw them win 10 games.
However, last season was a dogfight that saw the Noles finally break through and get their first win after starting 0-4. Syracuse has lacked quality quarterback play, and the offensive line has been about as bad as the Noles in recent years.
They have been one-dimensional and pretty awful passing the ball. However, they have a dynamic running back in Sean Tucker, who they lean on heavily, and some new offensive coaches from the Bronco Mendenhall tree. They lack playmakers at wide receiver.
Their strength is probably their 3-3-5 defense that predicates on making splash plays. They return their back eight but will have a virtually new defensive line.
However, Syracuse doesn’t have the talent to beat decent teams unless those teams keep them in games with turnovers and penalties.
FSU will also play them late in the season after they face the likes of Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame, Lousiville, Purdue, and Pittsburgh. They will be demoralized and well below .500 by that point and project to win five games, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech was awful last season and enters 2022 with a lot of question marks at several positions.
They lost their best offensive player to Alabama in the transfer portal, and a new offensive coordinator.
They have three guys vying for the starting quarterback position and a couple of wide receivers from the transfer portal. However, they have lots of question marks on the offensive line.
Defensively, Georgia Tech didn’t have a pass rush last year and only forced three interceptions. The Yellow Jackets lost eight of their top 11 tacklers.
Similar to Syracuse, Georgia Tech will play a daunting schedule before facing the Noles. They open against Clemson and then face Ole Miss, UCF, Pittsburgh, and Virginia before traveling to Tallahassee.
They project to only win four games in 2022, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index
Duquesne
FSU football playing against Savannah State in 2012 would be a good comparison. If the Noles lost the game, fire the entire staff immediately. It’s a game FSU should easily win, and hopefully, every player on the roster will get to see some playing time.
Parting Thoughts
If Jordan Travis remains healthy I feel REALLY good about at least 5-6 of those games. I could have put the games against Miami and Louisville on here, but I felt those teams either had better quarterbacks or a combination of more talent overall than the eight I listed.
However, FSU shouldn’t be huge underdogs in those games. The only two games where FSU will be outright sizable betting underdogs are Clemson and NC State more than likely. However, I’m not exactly sold on NC State, although that game will be in Raleigh this year. This is a tune I’ve been saying since the spring, and it’s to see some folks that were extremely pessimistic then becoming more optimistic now.