The 2022 FSU football season will be pivotal. The future of Mike Norvell at FSU hangs in the balance with the need to make a significant jump in the win column.
has put himself in a position to do so, using the transfer portal to improve talent and physical ability to compete on the field instead of relying on freshmen.
FSU returns significant experience on both sides of the ball, and most importantly, Jordan Travis returns as the No. 1 option at QB.
The program is coming off its worst five-year stretch in most of our lifetimes yet seems to be heading in the right direction for all intents and purposes.
Recruiting has a solid foundation based in the trenches, and only needs a few key players to solidify the class. More importantly, the Noles per player average is over 90, and they have a 50 percent blue-chip ratio with their 10 commits.
That’s despite coming off the fourth consecutive losing season.
Right now, it’s all about holding serve until the season starts. Winning is the only way to change the program’s perception. They avoided blowouts last year and were the most competitive in years.
However, they must turn those close losses and competitive games into wins.
Every game on the schedule is important, but a few hold a little more weight than others based on when and who the opponent is.
Let’s a look at my five most important games on the schedule for 2022.
Clemson
FSU hasn’t beaten Clemson since Sean Maguire led the Noles past Clemson when Jameis Winston got suspended for yelling on top of a table on campus in 2014.
FSU football had chances in 2015 and got robbed in 2016, and in the 2021 game, FSU had a real shot of winning. It appears the Noles closed the gap despite having much less talent overall.
Nobody expects the Noles to win the ACC Atlantic this year, but a win over Clemson would go a long way in removing that barrier.
The game last year also gives the FSU faithful they’ll have a shot at pulling off the upset. Clemson has new coordinators on offense and defense, and the Noles will have the Tigers at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Those variables place the Tigers in a vulnerable position.
This is a perception game, and another close game or win means last year’s game wasn’t a fluke. A win would be significant fuel to use on the recruiting trail as Clemson still remains the standard at the top of the conference for now.
Florida
FSU football hasn’t beaten Florida since the 2017 season, which is a trend that’s becoming a little too common.
Like Clemson, Florida is a game the Noles could have won last year. They are another team in transition with a new head coach and staff.
Florida isn’t as talented as Clemson overall, and it’s another game the Noles will have at Doak Campbell Stadium. This game falls at No. 4 on the list because a win over Florida changes the narrative between the two teams.
It ends a three-game losing streak and automatically puts Billy Napier on the defensive in his first year at the helm. He’s already caught a lot of flack and a loss against FSU would put the Florida faithful at his neck to end the regular season.
It would also be more fuel for the Noles to use on the recruiting trail, pointing towards this game that the Noles are on the way back to national prominence.
Florida could easily have four or five losses by the time the FSU game rolls around. They could be ripe for the picking.
Louisville
FSU football has lost the last two contests against the Louisville Cardinals. You may ask why the Louisville game appears this high on the list?
It’s simple, FSU must get off to a fast start in the 2022 season, and the Lousiville game is pivotal for a few reasons.
FSU travels to Louisville for a night game after playing LSU in week two. If FSU defeats LSU, a win over Louisville would send this fan base into a frenzy because they know this team would have a legitimate shot at winning eight or nine games.
It would be a potential 3-0 start to the season for the first time in a while and help change the national perception of the program.
A loss against LSU could be softened by a win over Louisville and keep their chances of winning eight games alive.
It would avoid a potential 1-2 start, and help the coaching staff continue to sell the message of moving in the right direction.
A potential 1-2 start to the season would make it incredibly difficult to continue to sell that message on the recruiting trail.
Miami
If the Miami game were earlier in the year, it would likely be No. 1 on the list. The Noles finally broke through and defeated the Canes last season in a thrilling home game for the first time since the 2016 season.
The win snapped a four-game losing streak and likely was the final nail in the coffin for Manny Diaz. Ironically, Miami fans have tried to turn that into a positive since they hired Mario Cristobal away from Oregon.
Cristobal has given the dormant program some new life, and they have been firing on all cylinders on the recruiting trail this summer, but they still have a lot of flaws on that team. FSU will have a shot at making it back-to-back wins, which would go a long way in taking the luster off of Cristobal’s homecoming.
The game is later in the season and could be key in helping to swing some recruiting battles in favor of the Noles. A win would continue to support the message of Mike Norvell bringing the program back to national prominence.
A win over Miami also gives the Noles a shot at winning the state title for the first time since 2016, which would be huge for recruiting purposes.
LSU
Want to change the narrative about FSU football? Go to a neutral site and defeat the LSU Tigers in primetime. LSU wasn’t good last year, but they remain one of the top seven most talented programs in the nation.
FSU will likely be a touchdown or less betting underdog, and LSU will be in a prime position to get upset. It’s their first game of the season and FSU will have already played one game to get some of the kinks out.
It’s probably better to play them early as they will likely get more dialed in on offense and defense as the season progresses.
A win over LSU would be huge from a perception standpoint. It’s a win over a talented team with one of the better coaches in the nation.
It would give the FSU players a ton of much-needed confidence that could propel them to a much better season than anyone thought possible(potential injuries aside).
Recruiting-wise, it would be massive and would likely get the attention of all the major targets remaining on the board, including others already committed elsewhere. A win would also help solidify all of the commits and make them less likely to withdraw their commitments.