I want to get this out of the way right off of the bat. No, I’m not trying to say Jordan Travis will morph into Lamar Jackson and win the Heisman Trophy in 2021.
If you’re a frequent reader of the site, you know I don’t throw things out there without backing it up with data.
Jordan Travis and Lamar Jackson have a ton of similarities. Both players had Bobby Petrino recruit them and sign to play at Louisville as three-star dual-threat quarterbacks.
Both players won the Lou Groza Player of the Year award while playing high school football in Florida.
Both guys had moments where they flashed as inexperienced players on the field early in their college careers.
I know most people remember Jackson as the guy that torched everyone in 2016(including FSU) en route to winning the Heisman Trophy.
However, in 2015, Jackson had a lot of the same issues that plagued Jordan Travis in 2021. He was inaccurate in the passing game and did most of his damage with his legs.
The Jackson we saw in 2016 still had a lot of the same issues, and the stats will reflect that sentiment. As I began to look at the numbers Jordan Travis put up in 2020, I began to wonder what was possible for him in 2021.
After all, Travis didn’t have an offseason and barely practiced in fall camp before assuming the starting quarterback position mid-way through the Jacksonville State game in 2020.
That would be similar to Lamar Jackson not enrolling early and starting games as a freshman in 2015
The numbers are scary close.
Lamar Jackson (2015 Freshman Year) 12 games
- Completion Percentage: 54.7 percent
- Yards Per Attempt: 7.4
- TD: 12
- INT: 8
- Pass Attempts Per Game: 20.6
- Rush Attempts Per Game: 13.58
- Average Per Rush: 5.89
- Rushing Touchdowns: 11
- Total Offense: 6.83 yards per play
Jordan Travis (2020 Freshman Year) 8 games
- Completion Percentage: 55 percent
- Yards Per Attempt: 8.1
- TD: 6
- INT: 6
- Pass Attempts Per Game: 16
- Rush Attempts Per Game: 12.13
- Average Per Rush: 5.76
- Rushing Touchdowns: 7
- Total Offense: 7.09 yards per play
I list Travis as a freshman because he only played in seven college games before the 2020 season. Look at how close these numbers are to one another for players in their first extensive work as starters in college.
Lamar Jackson was slightly better at finding the end zone and not turning the ball over, but Travis was nearly as productive and slightly better as a passer.
Now let’s take a look at Lamar Jackson’s sophomore season when he won the Heisman Trophy.
Lamar Jackson 2016 Sophomore Season
- Completion Percentage: 56.2 percent
- Yards Per Attempt: 8.7
- TD: 30
- INT: 9
- Pass Attempts Per Game: 31.5
- Rush Attempts Per Game: 20
- Average Per Rush: 6.04
- Rushing Touchdowns: 21
- Total Offense: 7.64 yards per play
The crazy thing is there isn’t that much of a difference between his freshman and sophomore years. Jackson is still not accurate as a passer, but he makes it count when completing a pass.
Teams had to respect his legs, which lead to opposing defenses playing a lot of zone out of fear of players turning their backs to him as a runner.
The biggest difference is Bobby Petrino understood he would need to ride Lamar Jackson to win games. Jackson rushed the ball 260 times in 2016, which is only 28 fewer carries than Dalvin Cook has for FSU football in his final year.
His pass attempts per game went from 20 to 31 between his freshman and sophomore year. Jackson’s rushing attempts went from 13.58 to 20 attempts per game.
Can Jordan Travis Handle That Load Increase?
Ironically, Jordan Travis is similar in size to the college version of Lamar Jackson. Jackson was listed as 6’3″ and 200 pounds, and Travis lists as 6’1″ and 201 pounds.
Jordan Travis has added a few pounds of muscle since last season but seemed susceptible to injuries in 2020. Maybe missing so much practice limited his body’s ability to handle those physical demands?
He handled spring and fall camp, although Mike Norvell protected his quarterbacks in practice. If he’s named the starter, would Mike Norvell feel comfortable putting the team on his shoulders?
The word is Jordan Travis has improved as a passer since last season. If that’s the case, that could help limit the amount of contact he’ll take as a runner.
As I said, I’m not predicting Jordan Travis to morph into the 2016 version of Lamar Jackson. I’m saying there are a lot of similarities between their first year as college starters.
They have similar physical abilities, and with some subtle changes and improvements, Jordan Travis could see a huge leap in his progression in his second year as a starter(if he wins the job).
If that progression happens, FSU football will have one of the most dynamic players in the country leading their offense. As good as Lamar Jackson was in 2016, that Louisville Cardinal team only won eight games.
It would take that type of effort from Jordan Travis(and a huge jump for the FSU defense) if the 2021 FSU team were to win eight games. If the practice reports are true and Mike Norvell feels comfortable putting that load on Travis? He could put up some monster numbers in 2021.