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FSU football: ESPN’s game-by-game FPI paints grim 2021 for Noles

By Kelvin Hunt

TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 11: Chief Osceola and Renegade of the Florida State Seminoles planet the flaming spear on the 50 yardline before the game against the Boston College Eagles at Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on November 11, 2016 in Tallahassee, Florida. Florida State defeated Boston College 45 to 7. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 11: Chief Osceola and Renegade of the Florida State Seminoles planet the flaming spear on the 50 yardline before the game against the Boston College Eagles at Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on November 11, 2016 in Tallahassee, Florida. Florida State defeated Boston College 45 to 7. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images) /
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FSU football has a tough slate of games on the 2021 schedule. I think most realistic Nole fans expect the Noles to win between 5-7 games.

The Noles rank No. 44, and FPI projects between 5.9-6.1 wins for the Noles.

However, ESPN’s game-by-game FPI projections don’t look quite as promising. I’ve talked about several games on the schedule as toss-up games the Noles have a chance to win.

A game-by-game breakdown only has the Noles favored in five games, which means they’d have to pull an upset to reach bowl eligibility.

Here’s how they stack up in each game by ESPN’s projections:

  • Notre Dame(No. 8 FPI)-28.1 percent
  • Jacksonville State (FCS)-97.5 percent
  • @ Wake Forest (No. 56)-48.5 percent
  • Louisville (No. 43)-58 percent
  • Syracuse (No. 96)-86.8 percent
  • @ North Carolina (No. 14)-21.7 percent
  • UMASS (No. 129)-98.4 percent
  • @ Clemson (No. 2)-5 percent
  • NC State (No. 41)-57.6 percent
  • Miami (No. 10)-29.8 percent
  • Boston College (No. 50) 43.1 percent
  • Florida (No. 11)-18.3 percent

Those projections are interesting. I’m not sure of all of the factors ESPN includes when determining the win percentage. I suppose they use home/road games as a factor.

I have no idea why Wake Forest would be a tougher game than NC State? Maybe they are considering the Wake game as the first road game, and NC State has to travel to Tallahassee?

Louisville ranks one spot higher than FSU in the FPI, but the Noles have a 58 percent chance of winning that game?

I’d probably reverse the Wake Forest/Louisville percentages. FSU historically destroys NC State in Tallahassee, but they return a lot from last year’s team and I’m not sure the percentage should be that high at the moment.

The Noles travel to Boston College after a big rivalry game against Miami, so I suppose that’s why the winning percentage is that low. I know Boston College has a decent QB and returns a lot of production.

There are so many unknowns about FSU football, it’s hard to get a feel of how they’ll perform. However, the opener against Notre Dame will be a great barometer for the rest of the season.

Do you agree or disagree with ESPN’s FPI projections?

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