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FSU football: Making sense of betting line against Wake Forest

By Kelvin Hunt

WINSTON SALEM, NC - SEPTEMBER 30: Jessie Bates III #3 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons tackles Cam Akers #3 of the Florida State Seminoles during their game at BB&T Field on September 30, 2017 in Winston Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
WINSTON SALEM, NC - SEPTEMBER 30: Jessie Bates III #3 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons tackles Cam Akers #3 of the Florida State Seminoles during their game at BB&T Field on September 30, 2017 in Winston Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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FSU football will travel to Winston-Salem to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons Saturday night. Why is FSU a slight underdog?

FSU football opened as a +2 betting underdog against Wake Forest this week. So technically this will be a “Sod” game since the Noles will be underdogs on the road.

The Noles likely would have been even larger underdogs had Wake Forest not laid an egg against Louisville this past week. The Cardinals were +7 underdogs and beat an undefeated Wake Forest by three points.

The Noles have already defeated Louisville and covered the -7 point spread though the game was closer than the final score. That along with the game being on the road at Wake Forest is likely why oddsmakers have the Demon Deacons as slight favorites.

Interesting enough, as bad as the Noles were last year they went into that game as -10.5 betting favorites and covered the spread after a terrible start to the game saw them down 10-0 before they could blink.

I think it’s safe to say the 2019 version of FSU football is better than last year, but apparently Wake Forest has improved too although they haven’t really beaten anyone of note.

SP+ advanced metrics have the two teams matched up fairly evenly. Wake Forest checks in at No. 49 overall. They’re ranked No. 26 offensively, No. 78 defensively and No. 41 on special teams.

The Noles check in at No. 58 overall(one spot behind Louisville). They’re ranked No. 28 offensively, No. 84 defensively, and No. 93 on special teams.

If we use the Louisville game for comparison sake, the Noles should have a great shot at winning this game. The FSU defense held Louisville to 5.46 ypp while the Cardinals averaged 7.5 ypp against Wake Forest.

FSU’s offense put up 6.96 ypp against Louisville with Wake Forest averaging 6.54 ypp. It’s going to come down to work in the trenches. Can Wake Forest run the ball effectively against FSU? If so, it’s going to likely be an offensive shootout.

If they can’t run the ball effectively I like FSU football to win this game going away much like the NC State game. The only difference is Wake Forest’s quarterback is much better than what NC State put on the field.

Evaluating FSU QB Play After Clemson Loss. light. Related Story

It should be an interesting game nonetheless and is a must win game for the Noles to have any chance to reach eight wins.

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