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FSU football: Why Noles will cover the spread against Louisiana-Monroe

By Kelvin Hunt

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 01: Florida State Seminoles fans during the game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 1, 2016 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Jeff Gammons/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 01: Florida State Seminoles fans during the game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 1, 2016 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Jeff Gammons/Getty Images) /
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FSU football is looking for a nice confidence boosting win against Louisiana-Monroe Saturday. I discuss why they’ll cover the spread.

FSU football has had problems winning games the past two years, much less covering the betting spread.

There’s an old adage that say good teams win games and great teams cover the spread. The Noles have been one of the worst teams in covering the spread the past two years.

They are 8-16-2 since 2017, meaning they have covered the spread eight times and not covered 16 times while pushing(landing on the exact number) twice.

To make matters worse, they are no better playing at Doak Campbell Stadium. It’s like there’s no such thing as home field advantage as the Noles have gone 5-9 against the spread at home since 2017.

When’s the last time FSU football straight up dominated a team anyways? Maybe the 2018 Northern Illinois game?

Before that game it was the 2017 game against Louisiana-Monroe in which they won 42-10. The Warhawks opened their season with a 31-9 win over FCS team Grambling State, but there were some things in that game that leads me to believe the Noles will cover the spread.

  • Grambling State has 243 rushing yards and averaged 6.6 ypc
  • Grambling State was 6 of 15 on third down
  • Grambling State averaged 5.73 ypp

We’ve seen the FSU offense operating at a high level early in the Boise State game. Heck, they had 68 total yards in the second half and STILL averaged 6.87 ypp.

The primary rushing attack behind Cam Akers averaged 7.7 ypc and James Blackman could have easily thrown for nearly 400 yards through the air.

Louisiana-Monroe didn’t have any sacks or tackles for loss against Grambling State which is good news for the FSU offensive line. The Warhawks depend primarily on the run for offense as their QB is prone to turnovers when putting the ball in the air.

FSU should be good enough to go man coverage and stack the box to stop the run. I expect FSU to score north of 45 points in this one and the defense should not give up more than 17.

Next. Why FSU Must Dominate Louisiana-Monroe. dark

That’s more than enough to cover the 21-22 point spread and get the Noles back on track to face Virginia in a pivotal road game in week three.

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