FSU Football coach Willie Taggart’s team struggled in his first year, but how does Taggart’s 2019 look compared to 2018’s other first-year coaches?
There were 13 Power Five schools that hired new coaches before in 2018 football season – of those 13 coaches, only four had winning records which is not a very good start. Some entered very good situations, some inherited terrible situations (like FSU football‘s Willie Taggart), but now they all head into their second years with their second recruiting classes.
So how do things look going forward? Which of these coaches will have the best 2019 and beyond (for the ones who don’t get fired)? Here is a ranking of which coaches are set up for a successful 2019.
No. 13 – Jonathan Smith, Oregon State (2-10 in 2018)
Smith joined Oregon State when the school was in a tough spot. The team simply didn’t have a lot of talent. In 2018, the Beavers had the 129th ranked offense (out of 130) and the 92nd ranked defense. Smith’s recruiting classes ranked 69th in 2018 and 68th so far in 2019 according to 247 Sports.
The only positives are returning running back Jermar Jefferson, who ran for 1380 yards and 12 touchdowns as a freshman and quarterback Tristan Gebbia, who transferred from Nebraska and sat out 2018. It’s hard to see the Beavers winning more than 3 games in 2019.
No. 12 – Kevin Sumlin, Arizona (5-7)
Sumlin got some good news with QB Khalil Tate announced he would return for his senior season. Tate will hand off to RB JJ Taylor, who ran for 1434 and 6 TDs in 2018. However, the Wildcats lose their top two wide receivers. With the 61st and 47th ranked recruiting classes the last two years, Sumlin adds some talent, but expect the Wildcats to end up with four or five wins in 2019.
No. 11 – Chad Morris, Arkansas (2-10)
Morris took over a team loaded with upperclassmen, especially on the offensive and defensive lines, but he still couldn’t find any success. The offense ranked 110th in the country and the defense was 123rd.
Add the fact that QB Cole Kelley is transferring after losing the job to Ty Storey, and things don’t look great for the Razorbacks. They brought in the 48th best recruiting class last year but the 20th this year, which includes six 4-star prospects. The future is looking brighter, but 2019 will be rough, like three or four wins rough.
No. 10 – Chip Kelly, UCLA (3-9)
Probably the most high-profile coaching hire of 2018, Kelly arrived at UCLA with a ton of fanfare. He pulled in the 19th best recruiting class in 2018 after being named the coach, but things fell apart quickly. QB transfer Wilton Speight from Michigan was given the starting job, but was unimpressive.
The defense ranked 100th in the nation and Kelly’s famed offense was 91st. As a result, he only pulled in the 48th ranked recruiting class this year. Some good news for the Bruins: former four-star QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start and he looks to be a stud, and OLB Jaelan Phillips, the nation’s top rated defensive player in 2017, rejoins the team after missing most of the season with a concussion. The Bruins will likely win five games in 2019.
No. 9 – Herm Edwards, Arizona State (7-6) lost Las Vegas Bowl to Fresno State
Everyone wondered how Edwards would do after returning to coaching after a long hiatus. It appears to be a fairly successful hire so far, however things could get rougher in 2019. The Sun Devils lose their starting QB Manny Wilkins, who threw for 3,025 yards and star wide receiver N’Keal Harry, who declared for the NFL draft.
Edwards brought in six four star recruits over the past two years, which is impressive at ASU, and he returns stud RB Eno Benjamin, who ran for 1,642 yards and 16 TDs. Five or six wins is likely for the Sun Devils.
No. 8 – Matt Luke, Ole Miss (5-7)
Luke’s Rebels started the season 5-2 then lost five games to end the season. Luke is losing important talent, including offensive tackle Greg Little (to the draft), WR AJ Brown (to the draft) and QB Jordan Ta’amu (who threw for 3,918 yards) is graduating. Luke also lost his OC and DC, who got head coaching jobs.
However, he made good hires with former Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre as defensive coordinator and Rich Rodriguez as offensive coordinator. He has recruited well with the 32nd and 23rd ranked classes, which include six four-star recruits, including Long Beach Poly QB stub Matt Carroll. With a new staff and many new players, six or seven wins would be a success, as they build to the future.
No. 7 – Scott Frost, Nebraska (4-8)
The Cornhuskers started the season 0-6 including a loss to Troy, but ended strong going 4-2. Nebraska is losing its leading RB and WR to graduation, but returns WR Adrian Martinez, who passed for 2,617 yards and ran for 629. Frost also adds transfers RB Greg Bell, 2018’s second ranked junior college RB along with Tyjon Lindsey, a top 100 WR in 2017.
Nebraska also brought in the 23rd and 24th ranked classes the past two years, which include 12 four-star prospects. Frost is putting his team together just like he did at Central Florida so expect them to challenge soon for the division title in the weak Big Ten West. Look for seven or eight wins in 2019.
No. 6 – Joe Morehead, Mississippi State (8-5) Lost to Iowa in the Outback Bowl
Morehead arrived at Starkville, to find a team loaded with talent, and the Bulldogs won eight games. The problem? The team was stacked with upperclassman, including star QB Nick Fitzgerald, who led the team in passing and rushing. Ten starters were seniors and junior defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons declared for the draft.
That is a lot of talent to replace. Morehead is an offensive genius, revamping Penn State’s offense before taking over at Mississippi State, which had the nation’s top scoring offense this year. Now, he has to try to rebuild the roster. With the 27th and 19th ranked classes the last two years, he brings in 10 4-star players. Once the Bulldogs find a QB and put their team together, 2019 may start slow but they could reach seven or eight wins.
Florida State Seminoles Football
No. 5 – Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee (5-7)
We all remember the mess that was the Volunteers’ coaching search. Getting Pruitt away from Nick Saban seems to be a good hire. Tennessee will return QB Jarrett Guarantano and top RB Ty Chandler, but the offense ranked 120th nationally.
However, Pruitt has been stockpiling talent with the last two classes. In 2018, he had the 21st ranked class and the 13th this year. This haul includes 15 4-star recruits, including Quavaris Crouch. The Volunteers also bring in five-star OL Wanya Morris and DT Aubrey Solomon, the 23rd best player in the 2018 class, who is transferring from Michigan. Tennessee benefits from playing in the much weaker SEC East. They should win seven or eight games, but look out in 2020.
No. 4 – Willie Taggart, Florida State (5-7)
Taggart came to Tallahassee with aa ton of hope and expectation for a high-powered offense. But, it was anything but high-powered, ranking 112th in points scored. There weren’t many bright spots and the team has a huge question mark at QB.
The Noles lost four-star commit Sam Howell and it looks like this year’s starter, Deondre Francois may transfer. FSU was able to bring in Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. With 2017 starter James Blackman returning and new OC Kendal Briles coming from Houston, the offense should be better.
Taggart’s 2018 recruiting class brought in some needed talent and many from the class played significant time. The current 2019 class ranks 11th and Taggart got to keep top recruit Akeem Dent. This past season was rough but Taggart is trying to build a new culture. Expect Harlon Barnett to put together a good defense, but the offense has to keep them off the field. If the OL can be rebuilt and perform at just an average level, expect the Noles to win eight games.
No. 3 – Mario Cristobal, Oregon (9-4) Beat Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl
Led by stud QB Justin Herbert, Oregon had a good season and almost won the PAC-12. The Ducks are thrilled Herbert is returning for his senior season, considering he will likely be the #1 pick in the 2020 draft.
The team has a good amount of young talent, and had the 13th ranked class in 2018 and the 6th this year, which includes the nation’s #2 prospect, Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks should win the PAC-12 in 2019, and if things go right, they could make the College Football Playoff.
No. 2 – Dan Mullen, Florida (10-3) Beat Michigan in Peach Bowl
Mullen came in and in one year improved the Gators’ record by six wins. They had the 38th ranked offense, a huge improve from 2017, to pair with the 24th ranked defense. The defense loses some studs, but Mullen has brought in the 17th and 14th ranked recruiting classes to restock the roster. This includes 25 four-star prospects, many on the defensive side. If the Gators can get their QB situation figured out, they could challenge Georgia for the SEC East title.
No. 1 – Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M (10-3) Beat NC State in the Gator Bowl
Sorry Seminole fans, but Jimbo stepped in and immediately changed the culture at A&M, just like he did at FSU. You have to believe the Noles wouldn’t be such a mess if he cared his last year and half in Tallahassee. The Aggies have a good QB in Kellen Mond and young studs at the skill positions, even if record-breaking RB Trayveon Williams declares for the NFL draft.
Fisher continues his recruiting magic, bringing in the 17th ranked class in 2018 and the third in 2019. With Signing Day about a month away, those classes already include two five-star and 23 four-star recruits. Expect 10 or 11 wins again, with a second place finish in the SEC West to Alabama. But not for long?