FSU Football: Betting lines favoring the Noles against Virginia Tech

FSU football is over a touchdown favorite against the Virginia Tech Hokies.

FSU football opened as less than a touchdown betting favorites over the visiting Virginia Tech Hokies for their September 3rd matchup.

The Noles opened as -5.5 betting favorites at most opening lines a few months ago. That meant FSU would be slight favorites (near a field goal) on a neutral field.

However, that’s not the case anymore as the points spread has risen to -7.5 points across most betting platforms according to Oddshark.com.

The over/under numbers have changed drastically as well. The opening over/under number was 50 points on August 11th, and that number has increased to 57 points as of Friday.

That’s a full touchdown folks, so clearly people are anticipating a high scoring game.

I’m curious to see if the lines moves even more in favor of the Noles now that Deondre Francois has been named the starting QB?

I wouldn’t anticipate it moving a ton solely for that reason, but most casual bettors are fickle and go with what they think they know.

Thoughts

I’m not surprised to see the points spread near a touchdown as I think that’s about right. However, I’m somewhat surprised to see the over/under number jump so quickly. It’s likely a combination of the Noles being sup-par (by their standards) last year coupled with the amount of talent Virginia Tech lost from their defense.

Oregon averaged 36 ppg under Willie Taggart and Virginia Tech averaged 28 ppg in 2017. Both teams will run up tempo offenses which will result in more offensive possessions too.

One important thing we’ve documented is Willie Taggart proficiency in the red zone. Taggart’s offenses have scored touchdowns on average 72.22 percent of the time the past three years.

Justin Fuente’s offenses have scored touchdowns 58.7 percent of the time in the same time frame. In particularly last season when Virginia Tech only scored touchdowns 50 percent of the time in the red zone.

So something to keep an eye on if you’re interested in betting this game. If the Noles can hold Virginia Tech to field goals and not touchdowns, it’ll be a good night for FSU and bettors.