FSU Football: ‘Noles vs. Ole Miss A Toss Up Game?
By Kelvin Hunt
FSU football has a tough opening game against Ole Miss on September 5th in Orlando. ‘Noles are favored, but some think this could be a toss up?
FSU football will travel to Orlando to take on the Ole Miss Rebels to cap off what is arguably the greatest opening weekend in college football history.
It’s an important weekend for the ACC as a conference as Clemson and FSU will open away from the friendly confines of their home stadiums against SEC opponents.
Granted, both ACC teams are favored to win it’s interesting to see how others view these matchups.
ESPN’s Andrea Adelson spoke on who has toughest week 1 games once the season begins.
"Truthfully, this is toss-up between Clemson-Auburn and Florida State-Ole Miss. Clemson opens on the road at a difficult place to play at night, facing much higher expectations than Auburn. Though Clemson is the better team, this could be a tricky game. But ultimately, Florida State faces the bigger challenge against Ole Miss in what should be a much more evenly matched game. Both teams are in the way-too-early preseason top 15, and both have significant contributors to replace. Though Florida State does return more starters, including running back Dalvin Cook, the big question is what happens at quarterback? Coach Jimbo Fisher has given no hints about whether he will turn to veteran Sean Maguire or redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, saying only that he will pick the player that gives his team the best chance to win. That decision will go a long way toward determining how this matchup plays out."
It’s true that FSU will be playing a higher ranked opponent than Clemson, granted Clemson has to play a true road game while FSU will be playing at a neutral site.
However, to say that FSU vs. Ole Miss should be a much more evenly matched game is interesting when you look at the odds for each game.
As we mentioned, both ACC teams are favored to win at the moment with the following odds from 5 Dimes:
FSU: -7 spread, -290 money line
Clemson: -7.5 spread, -310 money line
If we break it down by winning percentage it would look like this:
FSU has a 74 percent chance of winning the game against Ole Miss. Clemson has a 76 percent chance of winning the game.
Of course, anything can happen (like FSU turning the ball over 5 times to lose to a Houston squad they were favored to beat) and that’s why the games are played.
FSU football did open up as 10 point favorites a few weeks ago, and the number has dropped three points. It’ll be interesting to see if that number changes again once Jimbo Fisher announces who will be starting at quarterback.
However, to say that the FSU vs. Ole Miss game should be more evenly matched seems like she just looked at where each team was ranked in the preseason and went from there since Ole Miss is ranked in most preseason polls and Auburn isn’t.
It’s true that Chad Kelly is a very good quarterback for Ole Miss, but Ole Miss lost a lot of talent off of their 2015 team while FSU returns tons of experience offensive and overall more talent almost everywhere.