CFB Playoff: Previewing the Top Four

Only two power five unbeatens remain, and the argument about the best one-loss team is heating up as the home stretch of the season begins (rankings based on the recently released CFB Playoff Poll)

#1 Mississippi State vs. Arkansas

Following a week in which Mississippi State survived a fourth-quarter scare at Kentucky, 45-31, the top-ranked Bulldogs now turn their attention to the Arkansas Razorbacks. Dak Prescott has been one of the biggest surprise players this season, and is one of the main reasons Mississippi State is where it is. Prescott has thrown for 1694 yards, rushed for 664 yards, and scored a total of 25 touchdowns. Prescott is completing 60% of his passes, and has thrown only 5 interceptions.

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Arkansas has yet to secure that significant win this season vs. a top opponent but has come close. The most eye-popping score line came against #6 Alabama, to whom they lost 14-13 at home. In that game, Arkansas held Alabama wide-receiver Amari Cooper to 22 total yards receiving on just 2 receptions. ‘Bama QB Blake Sims managed just 161 passing yards on 11/21 passing as well. The Tide offense really had no bright spots coming out of this game, and the Razorbacks deserve most of that credit.

Arkansas had 335 total yards on offense, 8 more first downs than Alabama, and ran 28 more plays than the Crimson Tide. Arkansas’ time of possession was 34:13 compared to Alabama’s 25:47. Statistically, Arkansas dominated this game and proved they can hang with the top dogs. If this game were at Arkansas, I would put the Bulldogs on upset alert, but I think State’s offense will prove to be too much for the Razorbacks.

#2 Florida State at Louisville (Thursday Night)

After winning the most important game of their season vs. then No. 5 Notre Dame, the Florida State Seminoles had to immediately turned their attention to the Louisville Cardinals and their stout defense.

QB Jameis Winston is still managing to put up incredible statistics this season despite losing 2 receivers and 1,000-yard running back Devonta Freeman to the NFL. Winston has thrown for 1878 yards, averaging 313 yards per game with a 70% completion rate– good enough for third in the country. Winston has thrown 6 interceptions compared to his 13 touchdowns, but has started to settle into his own the past few weeks, mostly due to the improvement of the FSU receiving corp.

Freshman Travis Rudolph has emerged as a legitimate threat to opposing defenses, and Winston has called his number more as of late. Rudolph only has 232 receiving yards this season, but all of those have come in the past 4 games. The Louisville defense is ranked #1 but has not played an offense as lethal as the Seminoles’.

The Cardinals’ defense allows 66.9 rushing yards per game (first nationally), 177 passing yards per game (10th nationally), and is ranked the #1 overall unit in the country. However, the Cardinals’ offense is a concern. The Cards average 144.6 rushing yards per game (86th Nationally), and just 225.6 passing yards per game (69th Nationally).

With this game being played at Louisville in a hostile environment and against a legitimate defense, many are calling for the upset of the ‘Noles. Keep in mind that Florida State has won 23-straight games, including some in more hostile environments than this one.

With QB Jameis Winston at the helm, FSU has not scored less than 31-points in a game, and I don’t see that changing tonight. The ‘Noles defense is good enough to hold a mediocre Cardinal offense to less than 31-points, and I think FSU comes out with a hard-fought victory.

#3 Ole Miss vs. #4 Auburn

In yet another high-profile SEC match up, the one-loss Auburn Tigers travel to Oxford, Mississippi to take on the one-loss Ole Miss Rebels.

Last weekend, Ole Miss went to Baton Rouge, LA, undefeated, to take on LSU. The Rebels left Baton Rouge with a 1 in their loss column, thus falling into a group of 17 1-loss teams in the CFB Playoff poll. To the surprise of many, Ole Miss was still in the top-4 Tuesday night upon the release of the CFB Playoff poll. Ole Miss’ win vs. Alabama earlier this season is what launched it into the position in which it currently resides.

Auburn has followed a different path as of late to get to where it is today. The Tigers traveled to Kansas State on a Thursday night and struggled to pull out a win. Now here at the beginning of November, the Kansas State Wildcats sit at No. 9 in the polls and that win for Auburn has made it look much better than many assumed. Auburn’s only loss came at No.1 Mississippi State.

Ole Miss has the ninth-ranked defense in the country and the 62nd ranked offense. Auburn has the 20th-ranked offense, and the 44th-ranked defense. This game will be won based on the match-up between the Tigers’ offense vs. the Rebels’ defense.

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